Post by Admin on Jan 29, 2015 22:49:58 GMT
USO: 16.68
IV: 0.53 expected 0.56
IV RANK: +75%
Annual IV levels with each half broken into quadrants. (still testing)
Based on ONLY Daily chart using 52 week IV levels.
Expected trade
BUll PUT 14.50/14.00 This only yields maybe 0.01 in credit.
Examined further over the next 9 days
see chart (30 minute chart)
Upon further examination:
1 STD: +/- $1.77
Step 1/2: Plot IV levels
Historically, the stock dropped to the current level(IV level) 16.68. So, you should enter a bull put spread @ 15.50/15.00 for 0.06 after commission. This is approx 10%. However the 15.00/14.50 is more desirable.
Trade: BULL PUT 15.00/14.50 or 15.50/15.00
Step 3:
NO news is coming up for oil. this week.
Step 4: IV level is greater than 75%
Step 5: USO moved down towards current IV level. Therefore, we enter a bull put spread.
Step 6: Contingency plan.
1)IF USO breaks two IV levels, attempt to initiate bear call spread at least two IV levels away from price movement.
2) IF USO breaks past IV level 14.95, initiate bull put spread below that at 14.00/13.50 area (depending on time).
3) IF possible, continually roll down bear call spreads to capitalize on momentum and collect premium. Increase positions where necessary.
IV: 0.53 expected 0.56
IV RANK: +75%
Annual IV levels with each half broken into quadrants. (still testing)
Based on ONLY Daily chart using 52 week IV levels.
Expected trade
BUll PUT 14.50/14.00 This only yields maybe 0.01 in credit.
Examined further over the next 9 days
see chart (30 minute chart)
Upon further examination:
1 STD: +/- $1.77
Step 1/2: Plot IV levels
Historically, the stock dropped to the current level(IV level) 16.68. So, you should enter a bull put spread @ 15.50/15.00 for 0.06 after commission. This is approx 10%. However the 15.00/14.50 is more desirable.
Trade: BULL PUT 15.00/14.50 or 15.50/15.00
Step 3:
NO news is coming up for oil. this week.
Step 4: IV level is greater than 75%
Step 5: USO moved down towards current IV level. Therefore, we enter a bull put spread.
Step 6: Contingency plan.
1)IF USO breaks two IV levels, attempt to initiate bear call spread at least two IV levels away from price movement.
2) IF USO breaks past IV level 14.95, initiate bull put spread below that at 14.00/13.50 area (depending on time).
3) IF possible, continually roll down bear call spreads to capitalize on momentum and collect premium. Increase positions where necessary.