Post by Admin on Jan 20, 2015 0:45:43 GMT
*all trades after commissions
CHART
AAPL EARNINGS PLAY TRADE:CURRENT STATUS: OPEN ORDER BULL PUT SPREAD JAN 19, 2015
AAPL STATS Jan 19, 2015
IV RANK : above 90 %
IV: 37 to 40%
STD: probability stock will move +- 1STD from current price.
Approx %
+1STD: 15%
+0.5STD: 30%
+0.25 STD: 40%
-0.25 STD: 60%
-0.5STD: 70%
-1STD: 84%
Jan 23 - Bear put to IC - picked 0.75+ std move and it is near support levels.
Due to pull back:
Leg 1) Open order bull put spread at 102/101 for credit 0.15
Wait for short rally to establish
Leg 2) Open order bear call spread at 109/110 for credit $0.22
Bull put
Max loss: 100 - 15= 85
Max return: 15; ROC 15/85 = 17%
IC
Max loss: 100 - 15-22 = 63
Max return: 37; ROC 37/63 = 58%
Contingency plan: convert to iron condor if not iron condor already
If AAPL below 101.85
1) attempt to close 101 long put for credit
2) attempt to open bull put at 101/100 (1 STD move) 2:1 ratio for 0.1 credit
3) open bear call position at 108/109 or 107/108 for 0.1 credit
If established IC,when AAPL above 109.37, Credit for IC = $37
1) attempt to close 110 long call for credit
2) attempt to open bear call at 111/112 or 110/111 ( calculated 1 STD move from current mean) 2:1 ratio for 0.1 credit
3) close short put 102. Reopen at 103/104 or credit spread that has 0.1+ in credit.
expected credit received: $49
expected loss: $36
JAN 30 , 2015 status: open order
Bull Debit Spread 105/106
net debit: 0.48
Net profit: 100- 48 =52
CHART
AAPL EARNINGS PLAY TRADE:CURRENT STATUS: OPEN ORDER BULL PUT SPREAD JAN 19, 2015
AAPL STATS Jan 19, 2015
IV RANK : above 90 %
IV: 37 to 40%
STD: probability stock will move +- 1STD from current price.
Approx %
+1STD: 15%
+0.5STD: 30%
+0.25 STD: 40%
-0.25 STD: 60%
-0.5STD: 70%
-1STD: 84%
Jan 23 - Bear put to IC - picked 0.75+ std move and it is near support levels.
Due to pull back:
Leg 1) Open order bull put spread at 102/101 for credit 0.15
Wait for short rally to establish
Leg 2) Open order bear call spread at 109/110 for credit $0.22
Bull put
Max loss: 100 - 15= 85
Max return: 15; ROC 15/85 = 17%
IC
Max loss: 100 - 15-22 = 63
Max return: 37; ROC 37/63 = 58%
Contingency plan: convert to iron condor if not iron condor already
If AAPL below 101.85
1) attempt to close 101 long put for credit
2) attempt to open bull put at 101/100 (1 STD move) 2:1 ratio for 0.1 credit
3) open bear call position at 108/109 or 107/108 for 0.1 credit
If established IC,when AAPL above 109.37, Credit for IC = $37
1) attempt to close 110 long call for credit
2) attempt to open bear call at 111/112 or 110/111 ( calculated 1 STD move from current mean) 2:1 ratio for 0.1 credit
3) close short put 102. Reopen at 103/104 or credit spread that has 0.1+ in credit.
expected credit received: $49
expected loss: $36
JAN 30 , 2015 status: open order
Bull Debit Spread 105/106
net debit: 0.48
Net profit: 100- 48 =52