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Post by Admin on Jan 6, 2015 0:56:34 GMT
1) Ticker Symbol:USO 2) Chart: 3) Entry/Exit: Strikes 18.50/18.00 4) Strategy: Bull put spread 5) expected duration: 3 week 30 day IV ranges as plotted:30 and 16 Trade was entered at dec 31, 2014 when price touched support line (blue). The strikes were chosen at the approximate mid point between 30 day IV range and the blue support line on daily chart. I think this is the mistake. Trade should've used strikes below 18.50 (mid point).Possible the 18.00 and 17.50. Preferred is the 17.50 and 17.00 put spread. Currently, it is looking like the upper strike may be violated. IF that is the case, I will consider selling the lower strike and be put shares at a reduced cost. I will enter a bear call position as well at the 18.50 strike to further reduce my position. This will be done ONLY if my lower strike is violated. Recovery strategy: Close long Put: Sell 18.50/19.00 bear call spread (currently approx 0.3) Trade duration: Jan 9. maybe Jan 17. B.E:18.28 B.E after call spread: 17.98 Attempting to sell a bear call spread. This will complete an Iron condor for this position.
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Post by Admin on Jan 6, 2015 23:02:24 GMT
This was another bad trade. I forced this trade through bisecting too far on the daily chart. The support below the initial support line of entry is 18.55. My strategy is to sell strikes below the second support line. This would've been an 18.00/17.50 or a 17.50/17.00 bull put spread 1 or 2 weeks in adv. I think with such volatility in the stock (should look at vix levels also, currently at 20.), 1 week trades would be safer I believe. What I did, was sold an IC at 17.50/17.00 and 19.50/20 to offset the loss. Not sure if this will work, lessons learned 1) only use IV ranges for 15d, 30d, 52w 2) for high vol stocks (i.e 40% or higher ) pick spreads below secondary support line that are 1 week to expiration or as close to 7 days as possible. 3) Credit received could have been higher. However, with spreads like these a 5% gain is respectable. 4) Only bisect further, if you intend on taking a long stock position without commitment.This way you can establish a stop loss if it does not go your way. 5) Daily chart and Weekly for trades 1 week/2 weeks beyond. 1/5 min chart is for day trading. For the future: The yellow line is a calculated IV range point. This looks to be the next support line. So a 16.00/15.50 bull put spread would be a good candidate if you can get a decent credit. This is also following the strategy of selling premium beyond the second support level. Consistency is key.
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